by Fred L. Miller
Much of this article was written by Dr. Michael Brown for AFA.net, the website of the American Family Association. It has been edited to focus on the research showing how churches that remain committed to orthodox biblical doctrine grow while those who depart from it toward liberalism decline. Brown’s original article can be found here. PL comments will be in brackets. Let Dr. Brown get the deserved credit for his work.
[Referring to the pending split of the United Methodist Church into a conservative and a liberal branch, Brown said,] “History says that the conservative branch will grow and the liberal branch will diminish.”
This has been the pattern for decades, as I documented in 2015, citing a major study dating back to 1972 written by Dean M. Kelley: Why Conservative Churches are Growing: A Study in Sociology of Religion.
As Kelly wrote almost 50 years ago, “Amid the current neglect and hostility toward organized religion in general, the conservative churches, holding to seemingly outmoded theology and making strict demands on their members, have equaled or surpassed in growth the early percentage increases of the nation’s population.”
As for the liberal churches, he noted, “The mainline denominations [which were becoming increasingly liberal] will continue to exist on a diminishing scale for decades, perhaps for centuries, and will continue to supply some people with a diluted and undemanding form of meaning, which may be all they want.”
As I pointed out in my 2015 article, “Writing in the Federalist in August, 2014, Alexander Griswold noted that, “Every major American church that has taken steps towards liberalization on sexual issues has seen a steep decline in membership.” (His article was titled, “How to Shrink Your Church in One Easy Step.”)
More broadly, this is confirmed by data just released by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity.
Roughly 120 years ago, the Center claims that there were about 80 million Evangelicals and less than 1 million Pentecostals/Charismatics worldwide. (These terms might be anachronistic for the year 1900, but they are being used to trace particular groups over the last 120 years. And, of course, there is overlap between the two groups, which are both very conservative theologically.)
Today, those numbers, globally, are put at 354 million Evangelicals and 694 million Pentecostals/Charismatics. The projection for 2050 puts these groups at 581 million and 1 billion, 89 million respectively. This is the [projected] growth of Bible-based Christianity, especially one that emphasizes the ongoing ministry of the Spirit.
The Center’s data does not isolate liberal denominations, so their decline cannot be pointed to in the chart linked here. But further confirmation comes from a January 4, 2017 article in the Washington Post, which noted that “Liberal churches are dying. But conservative churches are thriving. A Canadian study found that conservative churches are still growing, while less orthodox congregations dwindle away.”
[Growth for traditional churches is not automatic, however.] To be sure, if the conservative congregations are hypocritical, dead, and legalistic, they too will dwindle away. But if they preach Jesus, welcome the Spirit, exalt the Word, and reach out to their community, they will thrive.
The liberal branch will become more liberal. Specifically, they will question some of the fundamental tenets of the faith (including the inspiration of the Scriptures, the virgin birth and the resurrection, the second coming, and more; much of this is happening already). They will become more universalistic (meaning, salvation is not exclusively through Jesus). And they will move further and further away from biblical morality. (For a recent, shocking example from Sweden, see here.)
In contrast, the conservative churches will remain steady [with regard to orthodox believe], since they are not reacting [to societal and culture changes]. They are simply maintaining their historic stance, believing what [the Bible teaches], and affirming what Jesus and Paul taught.
Dr. Michael L. Brown, PhD, is a radio host, author, professor, and Christian apologist. His nationally syndicated radio show, The Line of Fire, airs throughout the United States.
Dr. Fred L Miller, Ed.D. is a pastor, teacher, adjunct professor, and founder of The Prevailing Life (www.theprevailinglife.com), a ministry helping Christians endure, persevere, and prevail.
The Prevailing Life 
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